Colombia Nearshoring Boom

Colombia captures significant share of nearshoring from Asia, particularly in tech/BPO.

Plausibility:

• US-China tensions accelerate "friend-shoring" to Latin America
• Colombia's timezone alignment and bilingual workforce attract investment
• Major tech companies expand operations (already happening with Amazon, Microsoft)
• Government successfully positions Colombia as regional tech hub

Rationale:

• Massive Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) contains COP depreciation to just 1%
• Productivity gains and competition contain inflation (3.5%)
• Nominal wage growth (7.6%) driven by skilled labor shortage
• Real wage growth (4%) highest among scenarios
• Tech/healthcare workers in extremely high demand
• Job hopping increases as workers chase higher salaries
• Excellent employment prospects minimize defaults