Colombia Commodity Surge

Global energy transition paradoxically drives short-term fossil fuel spike benefiting Colombia.

Plausibility:

• Oil/coal demand spikes during energy transition period
• Coffee prices surge due to climate impacts on other producers
• Colombia's diverse commodity exports all see price increases
• Similar to 2011-2014 commodity supercycle

Rationale:

• Export revenues strengthen COP moderately (2% depreciation)
• Dutch disease effects push inflation higher (5%)
• Nominal wage growth (8.2%) boosted by resource boom
• Real wages grow (3%) but unevenly across sectors
• Resource sector booms while others lag
• Skilled workers benefit from overall economic growth